The recently concluded climate change talks in Paris known as COP21, left most participating countries satisfied with promises to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2100, however developing countries most affected by climate change came away relatively empty-handed. Frustration among many developing countries is captured succinctly in the opening line of Ethiopia’s climate change policy:
“Ethiopia did not cause climate change, but we are confronted by the threat that it poses, and should recognise the opportunity that it presents.”
Climate change appears to be a temporary topic of interest or distraction and not an issue that most Americans think about on a daily basis, aside from farmers facing drought. Discussions with government officials in countries such as Malawi, Mali, Bangladesh, Yemen and elsewhere immediately reveal the degree to which the climate change issue has risen to the top of the national agenda and conversation among its inhabitants. Populations in these countries are growing rapidly while rainfall, farmland and drinking water supplies are dwindling. How will the most vulnerable households cope in a hotter and dryer environment? Most likely many will choose to migrate to urban areas, a trend that is already well underway throughout Africa, Asia and Latin America. Eventually, they will seek to migrate abroad if their economic situations remain dire or they face conflict, as evident with the Syria crisis and resulting mass migration to Europe.
Research institutions are beginning to undertake more climate risk analysis research to understand the current and potential future impacts of climate change. In 2015, Chemonics’ ATLAS project commissioned the Climate System Analysis Group (CSAG) at the University of Cape Town to explore likely first order linkages between climate and food security in Ethiopia with an emphasis on critical climate variables. The survey team analyzed historical trends and variability, along with trend analysis over the next 5-10 years (2015-2025) and a climate model based projection extending to mid-century (2040-2060). By 2030, the trend of increasing temperatures will likely continue with significant consequences for smallholder farmers due to more rapid evaporation following showers and soil moisture deficits. By the 2040s, evidence points to rainfall decreasing in southern Ethiopia, while increasing in northern areas.
In 2014, President Obama issued Executive Order 13677 that asserts that international development programs must address the issue of climate change within US government-funded activities. This is a good start, but the funding to undertake this work is a fraction of what is required to help vulnerable households in the world’s poorest countries adapt to climate variance. Moreover, the recent interest within the US government is a reflection of the Obama Administration rather than a wholesale acknowledgement that climate change is upon us. A recent article in the New Yorker (http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/12/21/the-siege-of-miami) reflects the recalcitrance of leaders in Florida to acknowledge that Miami Beach and southern Florida are already affected by rising ocean levels.
So what can be done? Certainly, the scientific and development communities should continue to study the impact of climate change and invest in adaptation interventions for vulnerable households. Many non-profit organizations engaged in food security programs interviewed by Nile Point for a recent study for ATLAS noted that they are hiring climate change specialists and developing tools to identify climate stressors. Some USAID missions have completed Climate Change Vulnerability Analyses which provide a scientific basis related to changing weather patterns. The former Adaptation and Resilience to Climate Change (ARCC) Project carried out an important study in Mali to determine farmers’ experience with climate change and adaptation solutions they have already adopted. There are also research methodologies such as Randomized Controlled Trials (RCT) that can help organizations understand why individuals are or are not making changes to adapt to climate change. There also needs to be a greater emphasis on food security programming targeted to growing urban areas which will force “climate refugees” from rural areas to shift from farming to other livelihoods. With more information on hand, there should be a significant push among international donors, foundations and high income individuals to disseminate climate change adaptation solutions through respective ministries of agriculture, research institutions and international/local NGOs. This could also be financed with an expansion of carbon credit programs targeted to some of the world’s largest emitters of carbon dioxide.
